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What Exactly Does Tiger Woods Know Anyhow?
"Everyone Else Knows 77 vs. a Face is a Stand"

The Par 3, 4 & 5 vs. The Regular Course 

I had leave on a golfing trip this past week but before I left I was asked a quick question that momentarily stumped me.  I promised myself when I got back to find the answer, even though I was the only one (not sure about Tiger) not to know the apparent answer. 

My golf trip was a get-away to the only course of its kind in the entire world.  This course is one we own.  I wish I had the time to play more often, but I just don't, so it is special to get out there when I have the opportunity.  With the course not yet open for the season to the public it makes for a very relaxing break. 

The course I am referring to will soon be the longest golf course in the entire world.  It will be playing at just under 10,000 yards from it's Par 90.  If you are a golfer, you are likely saying, "Par 90", what in the he hell is that, 18 par 5's?  That is something we can be proud of, seeing as there are over 35,000 courses in the world and ours is the only of it's kind. 

What makes our courses so different you wonder?  Well our courses have a Par 3, a Par 4 & a Par 5 on every single hole (you can see an example hole on the right).  There are over 387 million Scorecard "Round Combinations" on just one 18 hole Tri-Par Golf Course.  So the course is different for its members every single day, changing from a par 54 to a long-ball hitters dream, the Par 90.  Hole number one might be a mammoth 550 yard par 5 today but on tomorrow's scorecard it might play a 150 yard par 3.

Being in this industry we have been fortunate to have met many professional golfers & architects.  Tri-Par has been features in almost every golf publication over the past 5 years.  We had the pleasure to share Tri-Par with Tiger Wood's in person at the Bell Canadian Open a few years back and we even invited Tiger to come and play our course.  Tiger has yet to make it but I can't blame him in the slightest.  I mean, there is no money in it for him if we don't offer the skins game (but there is talk) and he is busy on the PGA Tour beating up on everyone making $100 million a season (after his endorsements of course).

Has Tiger Played On 8% Of The World's Golf Courses?

Coming home from the trip I had a flashback, "That damn single deck question with the pair of 77s".  See I don't play single deck games.  They are not offered enough in my travels.  I have been in over 350 casinos, about 8% of the casinos in the world (never to Sweden though).  I got thinking, what exactly does Tiger Woods know about golf to be the best golfer in the world, which clearly he is?  Has he played on 500 different courses?  If he has, he has played on 2% of the world's golf courses.  I am thinking that might be about accurate, but what else does Tiger know about golf?  Does he know absolutely everything?  I bet you can pick a famous course he hasn't played on this year and ask him a question about a certain hole and he'd likely have no idea what you are talking about.  Clearly he doesn't have to know off the top of his head, even if it is something every member of that particular course knows off the top of their heads.  Why? Well, there is no money in it for Tiger!  If Tiger isn't playing on that course in a tournament this year, why bother wasting his time with useless knowledge about it?  He doesn't have to know everything about golf to be the best golfer in the world.  When the time is right Tiger and Steve will be ready for that course and that is all that is important.

Not being a big fan of a single deck game I don't waste my time remembering every single play, for every single set of House Rules, Penetration Points, and Counting Strategies for the single deck games.  I know I have the answers at my finger tips from the Playing 21 Program any time I want them and can get them in advance if I need them, so Jr & I will be ready.  All I have to do is input what I want to know and run a test.  There is my information.

NC SD H17 NDAS, 77 vs. F is S

I don't like to assume I am writing stuff to be read by professionals so I don't use Blackjack lingo non-professionals might struggle with.  I also count cards, or why bother playing because you can't win if you don't count.  Non Counting strategy is useless to me, for there isn't any money it in.  Yet, that is why I type away.  Apparently the entire world knows something I don't, that is everyone but myself (not sure about Tiger), that if you weren't counting cards (NC), playing in a casino that offers a Single Deck (SD) game, where the Dealer Hits his Soft 17 (H17), and there was No Double Down After Splitting (NDAS) and you received a Pair of Sevens (77) and the Dealer's Up Card was a Face (vs. F) than the correct play is to Stand (S).  Well, apparently I could even take someone else's word on that one for it is well documented.  Clearly no testing is required to tell someone that is a fact.

Well it is a FACT!  That is the correct play, but it is very close.

Myself though I am not only concerned about what is the best play.  I am concerned about the player who wants to know more, everything about that play.  What if I count cards, in any way possible?  When does this hand go from a Stand to a Hit with my particular counting strategy?  What if Doubling after a split is allowed?  What if I am playing alone at the table getting 5 hands a shuffle?  What about counting weights, how is this affecting this one hand?

One Face Removed - Things All Change

Well it is also fact that if we take just one face card out of the deck, this hand is no longer a Stand?  Did everyone know that?  How often do we get this hand in 50 Million Rounds?  How often do we win when we Stand and how often do we win when we Hit? 

Well if it is just you and the dealer and you get 77 and he flips a Face card on the first hand, now the hand is a Hit.  That simple, things change and on the first hand at that, because the hand is no longer a ZERO count but a Minus 1 and at minus one it is played differently.  How do we know that though?  Don't take my word for it, just find out everything yourself with the Playing 21 Program.  I have shown you here the tests results for a few tests I ran.  One was not counting, and the other two are counting and they clearly show how quickly this hand changes the way you play it (Hand Variation).

The first thing I did was quickly set up the House Rules as were stated previously.  I then set the Player Rules so I could have Players 1, 3, 5 & 7 Standing, 2 Spitting and 4 & 6 just Hitting the Pair 7-7 vs. the Dealer's Up Card of a Face.  I quickly ran a test of 50 Million Rounds for a Single Deck game without Card Counting.

HBD Categories	#1 Stand	#3 Stand	#5 Stand	#7 Stand

HBD Categories	#2 Split	#4 Hit	#6 Hit

The above are cut and pastes from the first test, without card counting.  They are from an area of the program that we call "the DNA of Blackjack", the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealers Up Card.  This area of the Playing 21 Program tracks each and every single cell in the game, so we can piece the game together and find out anything we want to know about the game Blackjack.  We'd go into the HBD and hit the player we want to see, the Pair 7-7 vs. the Dealer's Face and hit Update.  All this information is stored for every player, for every hand, at every count and 45 different categories for each.

We can see that the hand is very close between the Hit and the Stand in the overall game.  So close I'd do more testing myself if this was the way I was going to play, one deck and no card counting.  We can see that Player #2 is clearly the wrong play here.  Player #2 lost over $60,000 total Net Wagers or over $1 more Per Occurrence of this hand ($6.76) than Hitting or Standing.  After 50 Million Rounds of play Standing is just beating Hitting by a very slim margin, only several thousands of dollars in the overall game.  This however is huge though.  If you lose less while making the correct decision, you win more in your overall game.

With this decision being so close I knew that by adding a simple card counting strategy, this hand must have a certain count(s) where it changes to a Hit from the best overall play of a Stand if I was not counting.  What way do you count?  How do you want to count?  Where will it change?

Here is the answer!