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Hand Breakdown vs. Dealers Up Card
The Pair Of 4's vs. The Dealer's 5

Make Up Your Mind Already

This is one of the classic hands that people just can't decide how to play.  As Yogi Berra might say about this hand, "70% of the players Hit this hand, 30% Split it, 10% Double Down and 110% are playing it one way or another!"

If only Blackjack could be that clear, we'd be clueless less frequently!!!  I have seen this hand played in many different ways.  OK, so I truly only saw it played three different ways, but that leaves somebody playing it wrong or does it?

We knew before we made the Playing 21 Program, that depending on the House Rules and Number of Decks Used, that if you were not Card Counting there could only be one mathematical most correct way to play this hand, and every other.  There would have to be one way to win the most, or lose the least.  And what was right?  What is the best way to play a Pair of 4's vs. the Dealers 5?

Well, if you went by the Basic Play Charts distributed by many casinos, you would have seen both ways, Hitting and Splitting.  If you through in many books before us, you'd also see a third way, Double Down.  This is the kind of stuff being shoved down our throats for years.  Kind of getting old really. 

With the Playing 21 Program, we have something called the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealers Up Card.  This shows us how to play each and every single hand we can get.  You'd set up different players to play different ways.  In this test we were Card Counting and tested the Hit vs. the Split.  In this simple test we played 500 million rounds with Player #1 and Player #2 both counting the same way, but playing this hand differently. (See the thumbnail below to see what it might look like)

Player's Pair 4-4 vs. Dealers Up Card 5
Counting ==> As Minus One (-1) As Plus One (+1)
Player #1 (Hitting) 10, Jack, Queen, King (Faces) 3,4,5 and 6
Player #2 (Splitting) 10, Jack, Queen, King (Faces) 3,4,5 and 6

Of course you may count in over 25 billion different ways, or not at all.  You will also set up the House Rules, Number of Decks Used and the Penetration Points, as per your local casino.  We don't force anything on you, you set up the game you want to test.

 

Splitting Is Best

We have taken a piece of the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealer Up Card for each player to show some interesting things.  Initially, we have just cut and pasted a part of Player #1's (Hitting) Hand Breakdown below, followed by the same cut and paste for Player #2 (Splitting).

Player #1
Player's Pair 4-4 vs. Dealers Up Card 5
Hitting

Player #2
Player's Pair 4-4 vs. Dealers Up Card 5
Splitting

Fascinating Information

Of course we break each hand down into 45 categories and 21 counts, for each player.  From the above information we can see that after 500 million hands, Player #1 only had this hand 33 more times or 222,672 to 222,639 for Player #2.  That is a case of mathematics holding true.  Other interesting things we can see are Wager Frequency and Hand Variation shown below.

Player's Pair 4-4 vs. Dealers Up Card 5
  Player #1 (Hitting) Player #2 (Splitting)
Occurrences 222,672 222,639
Total Decisions 222,672 630,087
Win/Loss% 54.15% 51.78%
Loss/Win% 45.85% 48.22%
Net/Player Wagers $172,510 $219,550
Per Occurrence $0.77 ($10 Bets) $0.99 ($10 Bets)

Wager Frequency plays a big part in playing this hand correctly.  Player #1 undoubtedly wins a higher percentage of the time, but in Blackjack a Wager is more important Win and how much money you win is more important than how many hands you win and lose.  The bottom line is who is winning more money Per Occurrence and this example is easy to see.  By Splitting every time in the end Player #2 won $47,040 more dollars.  Clearly this hand needs to be split...

Or Does It?

We knew that depending on all those factors, such as the way we counted cards, certain hands might be played differently.  We call this Hand Variation.  This is taking the same hand, but varying the way it is played based on the count of the cards.  The concept in itself is not ours, and we always believed in it.  How we are different (in only one of those 100's, or maybe billions) of ways, is we show every single hand you can possibly ever get at 45 categories and 21 counts for each, no matter how you are counting.  Now you can clearly see if the same hand is played differently, and at exactly what count.  We don't need another book each subtle tweak, just another test. 

Looking closer at the above examples we can see that Splitting might be the best way to play this hand, but clearly not at the count of Minus Ten (-10).

Player's Pair 4-4 vs. Dealers Up Card 5
Player #1  Hitting                                                  Player #2  Splitting

Just at this one count of the cards we can see the difference Hand Variation makes.  Player #1 who is Hitting at every count of the cards, actually is making a profit at this count while Player #2 is actually losing money by Splitting this hand at this count.  The difference is huge.  You can see that Player #1 actually won $3,170 ($0.12 Per Occurrence) and Player #2 was -$14,240 (or lost -$0.56 Per Occurrence).  That folks is a huge $17,410 swing at this one hand and one count. 

If Player #2 had played this count as a Hit the over-all Win/Loss Report would have been better by $17,410.  This is the importance of playing each and every single hand correct.  That is why we call the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealers Up Card the DNA of Blackjack.  If you make the correct play in every single one of these cells, you are playing this hand correctly at every count.  Now you add this hand with each of the others, and you have the perfect Blackjack player.

It does not matter any casino rules, you just set up the game to mimic what they offer.  It doesn't matter how you want to count cards, even just counting two cards, the Playing 21 Program will show you how to play each and every hand, and at what count if any that hand is affected by Hand Variation.

If you play Blackjack, do the smart thing.  Make a valuable decision, one certain to save you stress and money, at the same time making your casino experiences more profitable, rewarding and enjoyable.  If this was a $500 program it would be worth it 10 fold.  Well, it isn't.  For just $50 you can own every single correct answer the game has.

How much money did you lose that last time you were at the casino?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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