Search IconXs

Hard 12 vs. Dealer's Up Card 4
"8 Decks - Just Changing The Count"

100,000,000 (100 Million) Hands Later

I went back to the Hard 12 vs. the Dealer's 4.  I used all the same set-ups as the first test, but only counted differently.  The Playing 21 Program allows you to set all the settings like House Rules, Number of Decks Used, Penetration Points, Players at the Table, Strategy and a Counting Method.  These are some of the things the Playing 21 Program allows you to change when testing.  Changing any one of these things changes the outcome of the game.  

The House Rules I used were an eight deck game, Dealer Standing on Soft 17, peaking, surrender, insurance, splitting up to three times, aces split once, doubling after split of non aces and free show comps.  I ran 100 Million Rounds for 7 players.  All players played the same with the exception of 2, 4 & 6 hit the Hard 12 vs. 4 at all counts in both the First Hit Rules and the Additional Hit Rules (although the Additional Hit Rules have nothing to do with the results below).  I bet $10 per hand throughout the test although with the Playing 21 Program I can change my betting after a test to see how betting changes my game.

I changed the count from the first test and this time counted the 3, 4, 5, 6 as Plus One and the Faces as Minus One.  The difference between these counts is a lifetime of chatter in the overall game.  Will it make any difference in how much either will win by changing nothing more than the count of the cards?

Here were the results from the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealer's Up Card for each player for the Hard 12 vs. 4.

Hard 12 vs. 4 Results From Hand Breakdown vs. Dealer Up Card Counting: 3456 Plus One and the Faces as Minus One
Count	Net Wagers (NW) & Per Occurrence (PO)	Player #1 Standing	Player #3 Standing	Player #5 Standing	Player #7 Standing	Player #2 Hitting	Player #4 Hitting	Player #6 Hitting
-10	NW	-163,670	-161,000	-161,830	-168,880	-124,580	-122,880	-123,640
	PO	-2.76	-2.74	-2.75	-2.85	-2.11	-2.08	-2.09
-9	NW	-41,530	-37,900	-38,770	-40,430	-33,400	-32,860	-32,870
	PO	-2.65	2.40	-2.47	-2.54	-2.12	-2.07	-2.11
-8	NW	-47,950	-48,030	-46,140	-45,920	-40,850	-41,600	-40,720
	PO	-2.53	-2.55	-2.43	-2.43	-2.18	-2.18	-2.15
-7	NW	-54,120	-52,850	-52,660	-53,350	-46,040	-45,510	-47,740
	PO	-2.44	-2.37	-2.63	-2.37	-2.06	-2.04	-2.15
-6	NW	-61,480	-57,540	-59,650	-63,280	-55,400	-52,720	-55,120
	PO	-2.34	-2.24	-2.33	-2.44	-2.16	-2.04	-2.15
-5	NW	-67,900	-68,290	-65,560	-69,330	-63,250	-64,590	-63,330
	PO	-2.32	-2.35	-2.22	-2.37	-2.16	-2.20	-2.16
-4	NW	-71,500	-73,240	-73,720	-71,400	-69,560	-67,220	-66,130
	PO	-2.20	-2.24	-2.27	-2.18	-2.11	-2.06	-2.03
-3	NW	-76,010	-84,060	-80,840	-78,370	-75,380	-75,130	-76,300
	PO	-2.15	-2.21	-2.25	-2.20	2.14	-2.11	-2.11
-2	NW	-81,260	-84,060	-80,840	-82,050	-79,630	-79,940	-82,150
	PO	-2.15	-2.21	-2.14	-2.14	-2.11	-2.10	-2.18
-1	NW	-78,650	-82,110	-80,800	-84,240	-79,090	-85,060	-83,900
	PO	-2.02	-2.09	-2.06	-2.15	-2.01	-2.16	-2.15
Even	NW	-81,080	-82,300	-81,860	-83,860	-85,330	-84,770	-80,080
	PO	-2.07	-2.09	-2.09	-2.13	-2.17	-2.12	-2.03
+1	NW	-80,500	-77,740	-80,410	-77370	-81,800	-81,320	-82,510

	PO	-2.10	-2.05	-2.10	-2.03	-2.15	-2.13	-2.15
+2	NW	-72,720	-72,580	-72,350	-71,380	-75,030	-76,330	-75,590
	PO	-2.02	-2.01	-1.98	-1.96	-2.07	-2.12	-2.08
+3	NW	-66,090	-65,320	-63,400	-62,010	-71,570	-71,580	-68,040
	PO	-1.97	-1.96	-1.89	-1.86	-2.16	-2.13	-2.03
+4	NW	-54,160	-55,630	-55,570	-57,720	-64,920	-66,180	-63,900
	PO	-1.80	-1.84	-1.84	-1.90	-2.16	-2.19	-2.15
+5	NW	-48,920	-48,720	-49,940	-50,430	-55,860	-54,950	-54,120
	PO	-1.85	-1.84	-1.88	-1.89	-2.12	-2.07	-2.06
+6	NW	-39,770	-40,250	-40,390	-42,600	-50,700	-48,970	-50,860
	PO	-1.74	-1.74	-1.75	-1.85	-2.22	-2.13	-2.19
+7	NW	-32,980	-35,700	-32,480	-34,120	-43,810	-35,590	-42,810
	PO	-1.69	-1.83	-1.65	-1.75	-2.25	-2.02	-2.18
+8	NW	-28,000	-23,760	-27,930	-27,570	-33,400	-35,540	-34,890
	PO	-1.71	-1.47	-1.71	-1.69	-2.06	-2.16	-2.12
+9	NW	-20,840	-22,830	-23,190	-22,960	-27,210	-28,120	-27,130
	PO	-1.51	-1.68	-1.72	-1.71	-2.04	-2.08	-2.02
+10	NW	-64,440	-63,010	-64,790	-68,650	-99,430	-102,500	-103,410
	PO	-1.38	-1.35	-1.38	-1.45	-2.11	-2.17	-2.21
Totals	NW	-1333570	-1334810	-1332380	-1355840	-1356240	-1357360	-1355240
	PO	-2.09	-2.09	-2.08	-2.11	-2.12	-2.12	-2.12

Unlike for the other counting method, this particular hand is much more clearly defined with this counting method as to how to actually play the hand at each count.  It is important that the players play the hand properly as can be seen from the above information.  Not one of the 7 players are playing the hand correctly from top to bottom, at every count, even though they all counted the same.  The correct way to play this hand would be to change from a Stand to a Hit about a count of Minus 2.  So all the Plus counts, Even and Minus one would be a Stand.

$177,330

The difference between just Player's #1 and #2 is a great deal.  Neither played the hand correctly.  By Player #1 playing it correctly, they would have lost $77,330 less dollars.  Player #2 could have lost an extra $100,000 by Standing in the proper counts.  A player playing totally opposite than the correct way would actually have lost $177,330 more than a player playing perfect strategy.  You can change the way a player plays at 21 different counts for the same hand, so you can run a new test with all these players playing this one hand perfectly, at every count, and worry about another hand you are unsure of in your next test.

For this counting strategy I was able to make every player into a winner using the Win/Loss Report.  So this counting strategy, with all the set up information I used above, using 8 decks, after a 100 Million Round test could make any player counting like this a winner.  However, if these players had all played this hand perfectly, they would have all lost less in their overall game.  It is like a company's Balance Sheet.  The company may have lost money in the first quarter of the year.  If this one part of the company lost less money in the second quarter, the company's Balance Sheet looks better, for they lost less money.  In Blackjack many hands just can't be made into a winning hand no matter how you play them.  However, if we play it correctly, we can lose less.  Now when we use Wager Variation and turn the game into a positive Net Wager game for us, we actually make more money.

Next I'll post the Win/Loss Report for this test but below are some screen shots of Player #4s Hand Breakdown vs. Dealer's Up Card for this test above.

         

The above thumbs are only the bottom of the Hand Breakdown vs. Dealer's Up Card for each hand each player gets.  How often did this player Bust at a minus 6?  How often did they get this hand at a count of Plus 9?  Did they take Insurance at any count, Surrender, Double Down or just about anything you can imagine?  Each hand is tracked in 45 different categories for every hand vs. every Dealer's Up Card at every different count.  Well that information is all there and we did it this way for a reason.